Expires:No;;407792
FXUS65 KPUB 170535
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1135 PM MDT WED MAY 16 2012
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
A WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING ACRS THE STATE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY...AND THERE COULD CONTINUE TO BE A FEW SHOWERS TONIGHT
MOVING OVR THE MOUNTAINS AND OVER THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR.
THESE SHOWERS COULD CAUSE SOME ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES...BUT
LITTLE IF ANY PCPN. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL CO. OF THE THREE TAF
SITES...KCOS WL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SOME SHOWERS OR
STORMS AT OR IN THE VCNTY...MAINLY AFTER 18Z. STRONG GUSTY WINDS
AND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 752 PM MDT WED MAY 16 2012/ 
UPDATE...
UPDATED GRIDS TO REMOVE POPS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AND SOUTHERN
I-25 CORRIDOR AS SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR IN THOSE AREAS. -PJC
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM MDT WED MAY 16 2012/ 
SHORT TERM...
(TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)
.HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRIMARY CONCERN...
UPPER SHORTWAVE TRACKING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH THIS 
AFTERNOON.  WAVE IS TRIGGERING HIGH BASED CONVECTION...SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO... 
EXTENDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR...NORTH OF THE PALMER 
DIVIDE.  THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AS 
THE UPPER WAVE OVER UTAH MOVES GRADUALLY CLOSER.  ACTIVITY WILL 
ADVANCE A LITTLE FARTHER EASTWARD AND SOUTHWARD WITH TIME...BUT 
PROGRESS WILL BE SLOW DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT OF UPPER LOW. PRIMARY 
THREATS STILL LOOK LIKE LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS UP TO AND POSSIBLY 
EXCEEDING 50 MPH.
GOOD MIXING THIS AFTERNOON HAS RESULTED IN TEMPERATURES THAT ARE 
ANYWHERE FROM 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA.  FINAL 
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL PROBABLY END UP AROUND 10 ABOVE AVERAGE AT MOST 
PLACES.
FOR THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER EASTWARD ACROSS 
SOUTHERN COLORADO...CROSSING THE EASTERN PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGH BASED CONVECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  ACTUAL COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE RATHER ISOLATED...BUT 
THERE WILL AGAIN BE THE THREAT OF LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH 
OR MORE.  THIS GO AROUND...BETTER COVERAGE MAY BE OVER THE 
PLAINS...IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER TROUGH.
HIGHS TOMORROW SHOULD BE PRETTY CLOSE TO HIGHS TODAY...GENERALLY 5 
TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.  NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST 
AREA...SAY NORTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER...COULD BE A TAD COOLER. THE 
SLIGHT COOLING EFFECTS OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE MAY OFFSET HIGHS JUST A 
LITTLE. LW
LONG TERM...
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
.ANOTHER RIDE ON THE WEATHER ROLLER COASTER WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM 
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WITH COOLER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND...
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PROGGED TO INCREASE 
ACROSS THE REGION AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WEST 
COAST TRANSLATES ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. WARM AIR ALOFT (10C-14C AT 
H7) ALONG WITH GOOD MIXING AND INCREASING DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL LEAD 
TO A WELL ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS 
ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME INCREASE 
IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO ON FRIDAY...WITH THE 
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND WEST OF 
THE CONTDVD FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LATEST MODELS ARE ALSO INDICATING THE 
POTENTIAL FOR HIGH BASED CONVECTION ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS WITH 
CONVERGENCE ALONG A DEVELOPING PRE-FRONTAL/LEE TROUGH THROUGH THE 
LATE AFTERNOON. AT ANY RATE...THE VERY WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS 
WILL LEAD TO INCREASED FIRE DANGER AREA WIDE...ALTHOUGH COOL AND WET 
WEATHER OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKENDS HAS CURRENT FUELS ACROSS THE AREA 
AS NON CRITICAL.  
FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH 
TIMING AND LOCATION OF PASSING GREAT BASIN SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED 
COLD FRONT...WITH THE LATEST GFS AND NAM REMAINING FURTHER NORTH 
MOVING THE SYSTEM ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE 
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON....WITH ASSOCIATED COLD 
FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE PALMER DVD BETWEEN 12Z-15Z AND ACROSS THE 
REST OF THE SE PLAINS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON.  THE LATEST ECMWF 
IS A TAD SLOWER WITH THE SYSTEM AND HAS THE FRONT ABOUT 6 HOURS 
SLOWER THEN THE US MODELS. HAVE STAYED CLOSER THE US MODELS KEEPING 
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN FRIDAY NIGHT 
WITH TROUGH PASSAGE AND ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS AND PALMER DVD 
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH DEVELOPING MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW. HIGHS 
SATURDAY STILL LOOK TO BE SOME 10-20F COOLER THAN FRIDAY...WITH THE 
WARMEST READINGS ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS...WITH AT OR SLIGHTLY 
BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES ON SUNDAY. LATEST MODELS ALSO KEEPING BEST 
CHANCES OF SEVERE STORMS ON SATURDAY ACROSS NORTH AND EAST OF THE 
AREA WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN 
MTS AND IMMEDIATE ADJACENT PLAINS ON SUNDAY...IF ENOUGH LOW LEVEL 
MOISTURE ADVECTS BACK INTO THE AREA.    
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PROGGED ACROSS THE AREA 
WITH NO EVIDENT SHORT WAVES TO AID IN CONVECTION. THIS WILL KEEP A 
MAINLY DRY FORECAST WITH AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH 
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. -MW 
AVIATION...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS 
ACROSS MAINLY NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH EARLY 
THIS EVENING...MAINLY NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM WOLF CREEK PASS 
THROUGH COLORADO SPRINGS...WITH MUCH MORE LIMITED ACTIVITY SOUTHEAST 
OF THAT LINE. MOISTURE IS HIGH BASED AND SURFACE LEVELS ARE DRY WITH 
DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS AND 20S...SO PRIMARY THREATS ARE LIGHTNING 
AND GUSTY WINDS. CONVECTIVE GUST POTENTIAL EXCEEDS 50 MPH. ON 
THURSDAY...UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL STILL BE MEANDERING EASTWARD 
ACROSS FORECAST AREA FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED AFTERNOON HIGH 
BASED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS. KCOS...KPUB 
AND KALS TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THURSDAY... 
EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY 
PASSING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. LW
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
28/28

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